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Ikibazo cy’isi yose cyagabanutse mu mezi ya nyuma ya 2019, nk’uko ubushakashatsi bwakozwe ku gihugu cya Euromoney bwabigaragaje, kubera ko hagaragaye ibimenyetso byerekana ko hari intambwe imaze guterwa kugira ngo amakimbirane y’ubucuruzi hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika agabanuke, ifaranga ryoroheje, amatora atanga ibisubizo bimwe na bimwe, maze abafata ibyemezo bahindukirira ingamba zo gukangura. gushyigikira iterambere ry'ubukungu.
Ikigereranyo cyo hagati y’impanuka ku isi cyazamutse kuva mu gihembwe cya gatatu kugeza mu cya kane kuko icyizere cy’ubucuruzi cyifashe neza kandi ingaruka za politiki zikaba zaratuje, nubwo yari ikiri munsi ya 50 ku manota 100 ashobora kuba, aho yagumye kuva aho ikibazo cy’imari ku isi cyabaye mu 2007-2008.
Amanota make arerekana ko hakiri ibintu byinshi bitameze neza mubitekerezo by’abashoramari ku isi, aho gukumira no guhangana n’ikirere bitera igicucu, ikibazo cya Hong Kong gikomeje, amatora yo muri Amerika yegereje ndetse n’ibibazo na Irani mu bindi bintu byinshi bikomeza isi yose ubushyuhe bwikibazo bwazamutse mugihe kiri imbere.
Impuguke zamanuye igice kinini cya G10 muri 2019, harimo Ubufaransa, Ubudage, Ubutaliyani, Ubuyapani, Ubwongereza na Amerika, kubera ko amakimbirane y’ubucuruzi yatumye imikorere y’ubukungu ndetse n’igitutu cya politiki cyiyongera - hakubiyemo n’ingorane za Brexit zitera andi matora rusange - nubwo ibintu byahagaze neza muri igihembwe cya kane.
Ubwiyongere bw'ubukungu bw’ubukungu bwateye imbere bwadindije umwaka wa kabiri ukurikiranye, bugabanuka munsi ya 2% mu buryo nyabwo, nk'uko IMF ibitangaza, bitewe no gukumira hagati y’Amerika n'Ubushinwa ku rundi ruhande, Amerika na EU ku rundi ruhande.
Amanota y’ibyago yarushijeho kwiyongera muri Amerika y'Epfo, hamwe no kumanuka byagaragaye muri Berezile, Chili, Ecuador ndetse na Paraguay mu mezi ya nyuma ya 2019, biterwa ahanini n’imibereho idahwitse.
Ingorane z’ubukungu muri Arijantine n’ibyavuye mu matora nazo ntizihangayikishije abashoramari mu gihe iki gihugu gitangiye kuvugurura imyenda.
Abasesenguzi bagabanije amanota yabo ku yandi masoko atandukanye agaragara kandi yambukiranya imipaka, harimo Ubuhinde, Indoneziya, Libani, Miyanimari (mbere y’amatora y’uyu mwaka), Koreya yepfo (nayo ihura n’amatora yo muri Mata), na Turukiya, kubera ko icyizere cy’ikirere cya politiki n'ubukungu byagabanutse. .
Amanota ya Hong Kong nayo yagabanutse cyane, kubera ko imyigaragambyo nta kimenyetso cyerekana ko yoroshye nyuma y’inyungu nini ku bakandida baharanira demokarasi mu matora y’inama njyanama y’akarere mu Gushyingo.
Hamwe n’imikoreshereze, ibyoherezwa mu mahanga n’ishoramari, ndetse n’abinjira mu bukerarugendo bagabanutse, GDP ishobora kuba yagabanutse mu buryo nyabwo 1,9% umwaka ushize mu gihe biteganijwe ko iziyongera 0.2% gusa muri 2020 nk'uko IMF ibitangaza.
Kazoza ka Hong Kong nk'ihuriro ry'ubucuruzi n'ikigo cy'imari bizarimburwa na politiki idahwitse yizera ko Friedrich Wu, umusanzu w’ubushakashatsi bwa ECR ukorera muri kaminuza y’ikoranabuhanga ya Nanyang muri Singapuru.
“Abigaragambyaga bafashe inzira 'yose-cyangwa-ntacyo' ('Ibisabwa bitanu, ntabwo ari bike').Aho gutanga ibyo byifuzo, bibangamira uburenganzira bw'ikirenga bwa Beijing, ndizera ko Beijing ahubwo izakomeza umugozi kuri Hong Kong. ”
Ku kibazo cy’ubusugire, Wu avuga ko Beijing itazigera itandukana hatitawe ku ngaruka zabyo zibabaza.Yongeyeho ko Hong Kong itakiri 'ingagi itera amagi ya zahabu'.
“Kuva ku cyambu cya mbere ku isi mu 2000, Hong Kong yagabanutse ku mwanya wa karindwi, inyuma ya Shanghai, Singapore, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Busan na Guangzhou;nimero umunani, Qingdao, irazamuka vuba kandi izayirenza mu myaka ibiri cyangwa itatu. ”
Mu buryo nk'ubwo, dukurikije icyegeranyo giheruka gukorwa, Nzeri 2019 Global Centre Centre Centre ya Londres, mu gihe HK yari ikiri ku mwanya wa gatatu, Shanghai yazamutse ku mwanya wa gatanu irenga Tokiyo, naho Beijing na Shenzhen bari ku mwanya wa karindwi n'icyenda.
“Uruhare rwa HK nk'ubukungu / ubukungu hagati y’imigabane n’isi yose bigenda bigabanuka vuba.Niyo mpamvu Beijing ishobora kwihanganira gufata icyemezo gikomeye ku bigaragambyaga. ”Wu.
Yongeyeho ko ku bijyanye na Tayiwani, iterambere rya politiki muri Hong Kong rizashimangira gusa imyifatire yabo yo kurwanya umubano wa hafi n'Ubushinwa, nubwo mu rwego rw'ubukungu iherezo rya Hong Kong ritazagira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bwa Tayiwani, mu by'ukuri rikaba ryarahujwe cyane n'umugabane w'isi. .
Ubushakashatsi bwerekanye ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi, amanota yo muri Tayiwani yateye imbere mu gihembwe cya kane.
Ati: “Amashyirahamwe menshi yo mu bihugu byinshi afite icyicaro gikuru mu karere ka Hong Kong azatekereza kwimurira aho batuye muri Singapuru kandi abantu bafite umutungo munini bazahagarika bimwe mu mutungo wabo mu rwego rw’imari rwa Singapuru rugenzurwa neza n’isoko ry’umutungo.”
Tiago Freire, undi wagize uruhare mu bushakashatsi, ufite uburambe mu gukora haba mu Bushinwa no muri Singapuru, afite amakenga.Avuga ko mu gihe Singapore izungukira ku masosiyete amwe n'amwe yimura ibikorwa byayo muri Hong Kong yerekeza muri Singapuru, cyane cyane amasosiyete y’imari, ntabwo yemera ko “ihagaze neza nka Hong Kong gukora nk'irembo ry’Ubushinwa ku masosiyete yo mu mahanga”.
Amanota ya Singapore ndetse yagabanutse mu gihembwe cya kane, ahanini biterwa no kumanuka kugera ku mibare y’imibare, kimwe mu bipimo byinshi byubatswe mu bushakashatsi.
Freire agira ati: “Igihembwe gishize twabonye ibintu bimwe na bimwe byashyizeho ingufu ku baturage ba Singapore.Ati: “Ku ruhande rw'uburumbuke, twabonye guverinoma yatangije gahunda nshya yo gutera inkunga igera kuri 75% by'amafaranga yo kwivuza IVF ku bashakanye bo muri Singapuru.Ikibabaje ni uko iyi isa n'intambwe y'ikigereranyo, igamije kwerekana ko guverinoma igerageza byose kugira ngo igipimo cy'uburumbuke, kandi atari igisubizo kiboneye kuri iki kibazo, kuko bidashoboka ko kigira ingaruka nziza. ”
Guverinoma iragerageza kandi gukemura ikibazo cy’abinjira n’abinjira n’imyigaragambyo rimwe na rimwe igabanya abimukira muri Singapuru.Ati: “Urugero, guverinoma ya Singapore igabanya umubare w'abimukira bakorera mu masosiyete amwe kuva kuri 40% kugeza kuri 38% by'abakozi babo muri 2020.”
Ubushakashatsi ariko bugaragaza ko amasoko menshi akura kuruta kutiyandikisha mu gihembwe cya kane - Ibihugu 80 bigira umutekano ugereranije na 38 bigira ibyago (ibindi bidahindutse) - kimwe mu byagaragaye cyane ni Uburusiya.
Kugaruka kwayo guturuka ku bintu bitandukanye nk'uko byatangajwe na Dmitry Izotov, umushakashatsi mukuru mu kigo cy’ubushakashatsi mu by'ubukungu FEB RAS.
Imwe murimwe nukuri igiciro cyinshi cya peteroli, kuzamura amafaranga yikigo cya peteroli no gutanga amafaranga asagutse kumafaranga ya leta.Hamwe n’ivunjisha ryinshi rihamye, amafaranga yinjiza yiyongereye, hamwe nogukoresha.
Izotov avuga kandi ko iterambere rya leta ryifashe neza bitewe n’impinduka nke z’abakozi no kugabanuka kw’imyigaragambyo, ndetse no guhungabana kwa banki guturuka ku ngamba zo gukemura imyenda mibi.
Ati: “Kuva mu Kwakira umwaka ushize, banki zasabwe kubara urwego rw'imyenda y'umwenda kuri buri mukiriya ushaka gufata inguzanyo ku baguzi, bivuze ko kubona inguzanyo bitoroshye.Byongeye kandi, amabanki nta kibazo afite mu bijyanye n'iseswa, kandi ntikeneye gukurura amafaranga ku bwinshi. ”
Panayotis Gavras, undi muhanga w’Uburusiya ukuriye politiki n’ingamba muri Banki y’ubucuruzi n’iterambere ry’inyanja y’umukara, avuga ko hari aho hashobora kwibasirwa n’inguzanyo, ubwiyongere bukabije bw’inguzanyo ndetse n’inguzanyo zidakozwe, bigatuma Uburusiya bugaragara mu gihe habaye ubukungu guhungabana.Ariko agaragaza ko: “Guverinoma yiyemeje gukomeza kugenzura ibipimo ngenderwaho nk'ibi mu myaka myinshi ishize.
Ati: “Amafaranga asigaye mu ngengo y’imari ni meza, ahantu hagati ya 2-3% ya GDP, urwego rw’imyenda ya Leta ruri ku rutonde rwa 15% bya GDP, muri byo munsi ya kimwe cya kabiri ni imyenda yo hanze, kandi umwenda wo hanze wigenga nawo ugenda ugabanuka, muri make igice kubera politiki ya leta no gushishikariza amabanki n'ibigo by'Uburusiya. ”
Kenya, Nijeriya hamwe n’abenshi mu baguriza Afurika yo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara, harimo na Etiyopiya yagutse byihuse ndetse na Afurika yepfo, barazamuwe mu gihembwe cya kane hamwe n’ibice bya Karayibe, Umuryango w’ibihugu by’Uburayi n’iburasirazuba bw’Uburayi, bikubiyemo Bolgariya, Korowasiya, Hongiriya, Polonye na Rumaniya.
Kuba Afurika y'Epfo yarazamutse byatewe ahanini no kuzamura ifaranga ry’ifaranga hamwe n’ifaranga rikomeza umwaka urangiye, ndetse n’iterambere rya politiki ryayobowe na perezida Cyril Ramaphosa ugereranije n’uwamubanjirije.
Muri Aziya, amanota y’ibyago yazamutse mu Bushinwa (kugabanuka guturuka ku ivugurura ry’imisoro n’imari), hamwe na Philippines, Tayilande na Vietnam birata iterambere ry’iterambere kandi bakungukira ku masosiyete yimuka ava mu Bushinwa kugira ngo yirinde imisoro y’ibihano.
Ubushakashatsi bw’ibyago bya Euromoney butanga umurongo ngenderwaho uhindura imyumvire y’abasesenguzi bitabiriye haba mu rwego rw’imari n’abatari imari, hibandwa ku bintu byinshi by’ingenzi by’ubukungu, politiki ndetse n’imiterere bigira ingaruka ku nyungu z’abashoramari.
Ubushakashatsi bukorwa buri gihembwe mu bantu babarirwa mu magana b’ubukungu n’izindi mpuguke z’ibyago, ibisubizo byakusanyirijwe hamwe hamwe hamwe n’igipimo cyo kubona imari n’imibare y’imyenda yigenga kugira ngo hatangwe amanota yose hamwe n’urutonde ku bihugu 174 ku isi.
Gusobanura imibare biragoye no kunonosora buri gihe uburyo bwo gutanga amanota ya Euromoney kuva ubushakashatsi bwatangira mu ntangiriro ya za 90.
Gushyira mubikorwa uburyo bushya, bwongerewe amanota mugihembwe cya gatatu cya 2019, nkurugero, byagize ingaruka imwe kumanota yuzuye, guhindura ibisobanuro byumwaka, ariko ntabwo bivuze muri rusange urutonde ugereranije, ibyerekezo birebire cyangwa ibihembwe byanyuma. impinduka.
Ubushakashatsi bufite ubwigenge bushya bwo ku rwego rwo hejuru hamwe n’Ubusuwisi butekanye bwerekeza ku mwanya wa mbere imbere ya Singapore, Noruveje, Danemarke na Suwede bigizwe n’abandi batanu ba mbere.
Ubusuwisi ntabwo bugira ingaruka rwose, nkuko bigaragazwa n’impagarara ziherutse kubera amasezerano mashya yagiranye n’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi, bigatuma impande zombi zishyiraho isoko ry’imigabane.Ikunda kandi ibihe byubwiyongere bwa GDP muri moribund, harimo no kugabanuka gukabije umwaka ushize.
Nyamara, konte isigaye irenga 10% ya GDP, ingengo yimari yingengo yimari iringaniye, ideni rito, ibigega byinshi bya FX hamwe na politiki ikomeye ishakisha ubwumvikane byemeza ibyemezo byayo nk'ahantu hizewe kubashoramari.
Bitabaye ibyo, wari umwaka uvanze mubihugu byateye imbere, harimo Amerika na Kanada.Byombi byagaragaye cyane muri rusange, nubwo amanota yo muri Amerika yerekanaga kwihangana mugihembwe cya kane.
Amahirwe y’Ubuyapani yagabanutse, kugurisha ibicuruzwa n’umusaruro w’inganda byanze bikunze kuko icyizere cyagabanutse umwaka urangiye.
Mu karere ka euro, Ubufaransa, Ubudage n'Ubutaliyani byagaragaye ko amakimbirane ashingiye ku bucuruzi ku isi ndetse n’ingaruka za politiki, harimo amatora yo mu Butaliyani, guhungabana mu ihuriro ry’ubutegetsi bw’Ubudage ndetse n’imyigaragambyo yo kurwanya ivugurura ryabereye i Paris bituma guverinoma ya Macron itotezwa.
N'ubwo Ubufaransa bwakiriye imyigaragambyo y’umwaka, cyane cyane bivuye ku mubare w’ubukungu uteganijwe neza, impuguke yigenga y’ibyago Norbert Gaillard yamanuye amanota make y’imari ya guverinoma, agira ati: “Ivugurura rya gahunda y’izabukuru rigomba gushyirwa mu bikorwa, ariko bizatwara amafaranga menshi kuruta biteganijwe.Kubera iyo mpamvu, simbona uburyo igipimo rusange cy'imyenda rusange na GDP gishobora guhagarara neza munsi ya 100% mu myaka ibiri iri imbere. ”
Undi mu bahanga mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe na Euromoney ni M Nicolas Firzli, umuyobozi w’inama y’izabukuru ku isi (WPC) n’ihuriro ry’ubukungu muri Singapuru (SEF), n’umuyobozi w’inama ngishwanama w’ikigo cy’ibikorwa Remezo cya Banki y'Isi.
Yagarutse ku kuba ibyumweru birindwi bishize byakorewe ubugizi bwa nabi bw’akarere ka euro: “Bwa mbere kuva mu 1991 (Intambara ya mbere y’Ikigobe), Ubudage bw’inganda mu nganda (inganda z’imodoka n’ibikoresho by’imashini zigezweho) bugaragaza ibimenyetso bikomeye by’ubufatanye ( igihe gito) n'intege nke (igihe kirekire), nta byiringiro biboneka kubakora imodoka za Stuttgart na Wolfsburg.
Yakomeje agira ati: “Ibintu byarushijeho kuba bibi, Ubufaransa bwinjiye muri 'gahunda yo kuvugurura pansiyo' yatumye minisitiri w’izabukuru (na se washinze ishyaka rya perezida Macron) yegura mu buryo butunguranye mbere ya Noheri, maze ihuriro ry’amashyirahamwe y’abakozi ba Marxiste ahagarika ubwikorezi rusange, birababaje. ingaruka ku bukungu bw'Ubufaransa. ”
Icyakora, byagaragaye ko ari umwaka mwiza ku mpande zose zishingiye ku myenda, hamwe n'amanota yazamuye muri Kupuro, Irilande, Porutugali ndetse cyane cyane n'Ubugereki nyuma yo gushyirwaho guverinoma nshya iburyo-hagati nyuma yo gutsinda Demokarasi Nshya ya Kyriakos Mitsotakis kuri gufata amatora rusange muri Nyakanga.
Guverinoma yashoboye gukoresha ingengo y’imari yayo ya mbere n’urusaku ruto kandi yemerewe kugabanyirizwa imyenda mu rwego rwo gushyira mu bikorwa ivugurura.
Nubwo Ubugereki bukomeje kuza ku mwanya wa 86 ku rutonde rw’ingaruka z’isi ku isi, bukaba buri munsi y’ibindi bihugu byose by’akarere ka euro, bikagira umutwaro munini w’umwenda, bwabonye imikorere myiza y’ubukungu mu myaka irenga icumi ishize umwaka ushize ubwiyongere bwa GDP buri mwaka bwazamutse hejuru ya 2% mu buryo nyabwo mu gihembwe cya kabiri n'icya gatatu.
Ubutaliyani na Espagne na byo byanditse ku nyungu z’umwaka ushize, bisubiza imikorere y’ubukungu iteganijwe neza, urwego rw’amabanki n’impungenge z’imyenda, hamwe n’ingaruka za politiki zituje.
Abasesenguzi ariko bakomeje kwitondera ibizaba mu mwaka wa 2020. Usibye ingaruka zugarije Amerika - harimo n'amatora yo mu Gushyingo, umubano wacyo n'Ubushinwa ndetse n'ibibazo bigenda bihinduka na Irani - amahirwe y'Ubudage aragabanuka.
Uruganda rwarwo rukora guhangana n’amahoro y’ubucuruzi n’amabwiriza y’ibidukikije, kandi aho politiki itazwi neza kubera ko amakimbirane yiyongereye hagati y’abayoboke ba Angela Merkel n’abandi bafatanyabikorwa ba demokarasi ishingiye ku mibereho ishingiye ku buyobozi bushya.
Ibibazo by’Ubwongereza na byo bikomeje gutera urujijo, n’ubwo impuguke z’impanuka zasuzumye ibyavuye mu matora rusange zitanga ubwiganze bukomeye ku ba Conservateurs ba Boris Johnson no gukuraho inzitizi z’amategeko.
Impuguke nyinshi, harimo na Norbert Gaillard, zazamuye amanota kugira ngo guverinoma y'Ubwongereza itekane.Ati: “Impamvu yanjye ni uko guverinoma y'Ubwongereza itajegajega kandi ishingiye ku Ishyaka Riharanira Demokarasi no Kurengera Ibidukikije muri Irilande y'Amajyaruguru mu mwaka wa 2018-2019.
Ati: “Ubu ibintu birasobanutse, kandi nubwo Brexit ari mibi, minisitiri w’intebe Boris Johnson afite ubwiganze bwinshi kandi imbaraga ze zo guhahirana zizaba nyinshi kuruta mbere igihe azaba aganira n’umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi.”
Abasesenguzi ariko ntibacitsemo ibice hagati y’abo, nka Gaillard, bizeye cyane ku bijyanye n’imyumvire bitewe n’urwego rufatika rwo kugera kuri Brexit, ndetse n’abarebera hamwe ishusho y’ubukungu n’imari y’Ubwongereza bitonze bakurikije gahunda za leta zikoresha amafaranga rusange ndetse n’icyizere cyo kutabaho -ibisubizo nyabyo bigomba gushyikirana mubucuruzi na EU bitera imbere nabi.
Icyakora, Firzli yizera ko abafite imitungo y'igihe kirekire baturuka mu Bushinwa - ndetse na Amerika, Kanada, Ositaraliya, Singapuru na Abu Dhabi ('ibihugu by'ibihangange bya pansiyo') - bafite ubushake bwo gushora imari mu gihe kirekire mu Bwongereza, nubwo amafaranga menshi akoreshwa na leta hamwe na Brexit bijyanye ningengo yimari mugihe gito.
Ku rundi ruhande, imitekerereze ya orthodox 'core-eurozone' nk’Ubudage, Luxembourg, Ubuholandi na Danemark “bishobora kuba bigoye cyane gukurura abashoramari b’igihe kirekire bo mu mahanga mu mezi ari imbere”.
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Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-16-2020