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Ubungozi bomhlaba wonke behle ezinyangeni zokugcina zika-2019, ngokocwaningo lwezwe lwe-Euromoney, njengoba kuvela izimpawu zempumelelo ukuqeda umshikashika ngengxabano yezohwebo phakathi kweChina ne-US, ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukhetho lwaletha imiphumela ethile, futhi abenzi bezinqubomgomo baphendukela ezindleleni zokuvuselela kabusha. ukusekela ukukhula komnotho.
Isilinganiso esimaphakathi sobungozi bomhlaba wonke sithuthuke sisuka kwikota yesithathu kuya kweyesine njengoba ukuzethemba kwebhizinisi kuzinzile kanye nezingozi zezepolitiki zidambile, nakuba lisengaphansi kwama-50 kwamaphuzu ayi-100 okungenzeka ukuthi akhona, lapho lisahlala khona kusukela ngenhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba ka-2007-2008.
Amaphuzu aphansi akhombisa ukuthi kusekuningi ukungaphatheki kahle ekubukeni kwabatshalizimali emhlabeni jikelele, ukuvikela kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kubeka isithunzi, inkinga yaseHong Kong isaqhubeka, ukhetho lwase-US lusondela kanye nesimo se-Iran phakathi kwezinye izici eziningi ezigcina umhlaba wonke. izinga lokushisa engozini lenyukile okwamanje.
Ochwepheshe behlise iningi le-G10 ngo-2019, okuhlanganisa iFrance, iJalimane, i-Italy, iJapan, i-UK kanye ne-US, njengoba izingxabano zezohwebo zicekela phansi ukusebenza komnotho kanye nezingcindezi zezombangazwe zanda - okuhlanganisa nobunzima be-Brexit obudala olunye ukhetho lukazwelonke olusheshayo - yize isimo sizinzile ezweni. ikota yesine.
Ukukhula komnotho weminotho ethuthukile kwehle onyakeni wesibili olandelanayo, kwehle ngaphansi kuka-2% ngokwemibandela yangempela, ngokusho kwe-IMF, ngenxa yokuvikelwa phakathi kwe-US neChina ngakolunye uhlangothi, kanye ne-US ne-EU ngakolunye.
Amanani engcuphe abe mabi kakhulu eLatin America, njengoba ukwehla kwenzeka eBrazil, eChile, e-Ecuador naseParaguay ezinyangeni zokugcina zika-2019, ngokwengxenye kubangelwa ukungazinzi komphakathi.
Izinkinga zezomnotho zase-Argentina kanye nemiphumela yokhetho nazo zishaqisa abatshalizimali njengoba leli zwe liqala okunye ukuhlela kabusha izikweletu.
Abahlaziyi behlise amaphuzu abo kwezinye izimakethe ezahlukahlukene ezisafufusa nezasemngceleni, okuhlanganisa i-India, i-Indonesia, iLebanon, iMyanmar (ngaphambi kokhetho lwalo nyaka), iSouth Korea (nayo ebhekene nokhetho ngo-April), neTurkey, njengoba kuncipha ukuzethemba ngesimo sezombangazwe nomnotho. .
Amaphuzu eHong Kong nawo ehle kakhulu, njengoba imibhikisho ingakhombisi zimpawu zokudamba kulandela ukuzuza okukhulu kwabamele intando yeningi okhethweni lomkhandlu wesifunda ngoNovemba.
Ngokusetshenziswa, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali, kanye nokufika kwezivakashi kwehla, i-GDP kungenzeka yehle ngokwangempela ngo-1.9% ngonyaka odlule ngenkathi isibikezelo sizokhula ngo-0.2% ngo-2020 ngokusho kwe-IMF.
Ikusasa le-Hong Kong njengendawo yebhizinisi nesikhungo sezezimali lizoshabalala ngenxa ye-gridlock yezombusazwe ukholelwa ukuthi uFriedrich Wu, onikela kuhlolo lwe-ECR ozinze eNanyang Technology University eSingapore.
“Ababhikishi bathathe indlela 'yonke noma-lutho' ('Izimfuno Ezinhlanu, Not One Less').Esikhundleni sokunikeza lezi zidingo, ezibekela inselelo amalungelo obukhosi baseBeijing, ngikholwa ukuthi iBeijing izoqinisa izintambo zayo eHong Kong. "
Odabeni lobukhosi, uWu uthi iBeijing ayisoze yayekethisa noma ngabe ibuhlungu kangakanani imiphumela.Ngaphandle kwalokho, iHong Kong ayiselona 'ihansi elizalela amaqanda egolide', uphakamisa.
“Isuka echwebeni elihamba phambili emhlabeni wonke lamakhonteyina ngo-2000, iHong Kong manje isiwele endaweni yesikhombisa, ilandela iShanghai, Singapore, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Busan neGuangzhou;futhi inombolo yesishiyagalombili, i-Qingdao, ikhuphuka ngokushesha futhi izoyidlula eminyakeni emibili kuya kwemithathu.”
Ngokunjalo, ngokwakamuva, Inkomba ye-Global Financial Centers Index kaSepthemba 2019 yaseLondon, ngenkathi i-HK isakleliswe endaweni yesithathu, iShanghai yanyukela endaweni yesihlanu idlula iTokyo, kuyilapho iBeijing neShenzhen zikleliswe endaweni yesikhombisa neyesishiyagalolunye ngokulandelana.
“Iqhaza le-HK njengokuxhumana kwezomnotho/kwezezimali phakathi kwezwe elikhulu kanye nomhlaba wonke liyancipha ngokushesha.Yingakho iBeijing ikwazi ukuthatha isikhundla esiqinile kubabhikishi,” kusho uWu.
Ngokuqondene neTaiwan, uyanezela, intuthuko yezombangazwe eHong Kong izoqinisa isimo sabo sengqondo ngokumelene nobudlelwane obuseduze neChina, nakuba ngokwezomnotho ukufa kweHong Kong ngeke kube nomthelela omkhulu emnothweni waseTaiwan, empeleni ohlanganiswe kakhulu nezwekazi. .
Eqiniswe yilokhu kuqina komnotho, amaphuzu engcuphe yase-Taiwan abe ngcono ngekota yesine, inhlolovo iyabonisa.
“Izinkampani eziningi zamazwe ngamazwe ezinendlunkulu yazo yesifunda e-Hong Kong zizocabangela ukuthuthela izindawo zazo zokuhlala e-Singapore futhi abantu abanenani eliphakeme bazopakisha enye yengcebo yabo emkhakheni wezezimali olawulwa kahle waseSingapore kanye nemakethe yezakhiwo.”
U-Tiago Freire, omunye obambe iqhaza ocwaningweni, onolwazi lokusebenza e-China nase-Singapore, uqaphe kakhulu.Ugomela ngokuthi nakuba iSingapore izozuza kwezinye izinkampani ezisusa ukusebenza kwazo zisuka eHong Kong ziye eSingapore, ikakhulukazi izinkampani zezezimali, akakholelwa ukuthi “isesimweni esihle njengeHong Kong ukuze isebenze njengesango eliya eChina ezinkampanini zakwamanye amazwe”.
Amaphuzu e-Singapore aze ehla ngekota yesine, ikakhulukazi okubangelwe ukwehliswa kwenani labantu, okungenye yezinkomba ezimbalwa zesakhiwo ocwaningweni.
“Ikota yokugcina sibone intuthuko efaka ingcindezi enkulu ekuzinzeni kwabantu base-Singapore,” kusho uFreire.“Ohlangothini lwenzalo, sibone uhulumeni ethula uhlelo olusha lokuxhasa izindleko ezifika ku-75% zokwelashwa kwe-IVF yezithandani zaseSingapore.Ngeshwa, lokhu kubonakala kuyisinyathelo esingokomfanekiso, okuhloswe ngaso ukukhombisa ukuthi uhulumeni uzama konke okusemandleni ukuthuthukisa izinga lokuzala, hhayi isixazululo esisebenzayo kule nkinga, njengoba mancane amathuba okuba kube nomphumela ophusile.”
Uhulumeni uyazama futhi ukubhekana nokuhlehla kwabokufika kanye nokubhikisha ngezikhathi ezithile ngokunciphisa abantu abafudukela eSingapore."Isibonelo, uhulumeni waseSingapore unciphisa isibalo sabokufika abasebenza ezinkampanini ezithile sisuka ku-40% siye ku-38% wabasebenzi babo ngo-2020."
Ucwaningo nokho lukhombisa ukuthi izimakethe ezisafufusa eziningi kunentuthuko engabhalisiwe kwikota yesine - amazwe angama-80 aphephe kakhudlwana uma kuqhathaniswa nama-38 eba yi-riskier (okunye okungashintshiwe) - enye ephawuleka kakhulu iRussia.
Ukubuya kwayo kuncike ezintweni ezehlukene, ngokusho kukaDmitry Izotov, umcwaningi ophezulu esikhungweni socwaningo lwezomnotho i-FEB RAS.
Enye intengo ephezulu kawoyela, ukukhulisa imali yenkampani kawoyela kanye nokukhiqiza insalela emalini kahulumeni.Ngokuzinza okukhulu kwezinga lokushintshisana, imali engenayo yomuntu siqu inyukile, kanye nokusetshenziswa.
I-Izotov iphinde iphawule ngentuthuko ekuzinzeni kukahulumeni ngenxa yoshintsho oluncane kubasebenzi kanye nokwehla kwemisebenzi yokubhikisha, kanye nokuzinza kwebhange okubangelwa izinyathelo zokubhekana nezikweletu ezimbi.
“Kusukela ngo-Okthoba nyakenye kudingeke ukuthi amabhange abale izinga lesikweletu sekhasimende ngalinye elifuna ukuboleka imali, okusho ukuthi ukuthola imali ebolekiwe kuba nzima kakhulu.Ngaphezu kwalokho, amabhange awanazo izinkinga nge-liquidity, futhi awadingi ukuheha amadiphozithi ngezinga elikhulu. "
UPanayotis Gavras, omunye uchwepheshe waseRussia oyinhloko yenqubomgomo namasu eBlack Sea Trade and Development Bank, uphawula ukuthi kunezindawo ezingaba sengozini mayelana nezikweletu, ukukhula ngokweqile kwezikweletu kanye nokubolekwa kwemali okungenzi kahle, okushiya iRussia obala uma kwenzeka isimo sezomnotho sikhula. ukwethuka.Kodwa uveza ukuthi: “Uhulumeni ubelokhu eshisekela ukugcina lezi zinkomba ezibalulekile zilawulwa futhi/noma zihamba ngendlela efanele iminyaka eminingana.
“Isabelomali esihle, endaweni ethile phakathi kuka-2-3% we-GDP, amazinga ezikweletu zomphakathi alandelana ngo-15% we-GDP, okungaphansi kwengxenye yawo eyisikweletu sangaphandle, kanti nezikweletu zangaphandle ezizimele nazo ziyehla, kancane. ingxenye ngenxa yezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni kanye nezikhuthazo zamabhange namafemu aseRussia.”
IKenya, iNigeria kanye neningi lababoleki base-Afrika eseningizimu yeSahara, okuhlanganisa ne-Ethiopia ekhula ngokushesha kanye neNingizimu Afrika, ithuthukiswe ngekota yesine kanye nezingxenye zeCaribbean, CIS kanye nasempumalanga yeYurophu, ehlanganisa iBulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland kanye I-Romania.
Ukukhula kweNingizimu Afrika ngokwengxenye kugqugquzelwe ukuthuthukisa uzinzo emalini ngokuqiniswa kwerandi ngasekupheleni konyaka, kanye nesimo sezombusazwe esithuthukayo ngaphansi kukamongameli uCyril Ramaphosa uma kuqhathaniswa nowayengaphambi kwakhe.
E-Asia, amaphuzu engcuphe athuthukile e-China (ukwehla okuncane okubangelwa ingxenye yezinguquko zentela nezezimali), kanye ne-Philippines, i-Thailand ne-Vietnam eziqhayisa ngamathemba okukhula aqinile kanye nokuhlomula ezinkampanini ezisuka e-China ukuze zigweme intela eyisijeziso.
Inhlolovo yengozi ye-Euromoney inikeza umhlahlandlela osabelayo ekushintsheni kwemibono yabahlaziyi ababambe iqhaza kuyo yomibili imikhakha yezezimali nengeyona eyezimali, egxile ohlotsheni lwezici ezibalulekile zezomnotho, zezombusazwe kanye nesakhiwo ezithinta imbuyiselo yabatshalizimali.
Inhlolovo yenziwa njalo ngekota phakathi kwamakhulu ambalwa osomnotho kanye nabanye ochwepheshe bengcuphe, imiphumela ihlanganiswe futhi yahlanganiswa kanye nesilinganiso sokufinyelela kwezimali kanye nezibalo zezikweletu ezizimele ukuze kuhlinzekwe amaphuzu aphelele ezingozi kanye namazinga emazweni ayi-174 emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukutolika izibalo kuba nzima ukuthuthuka ngezikhathi ezithile endleleni yokuthola amaphuzu ye-Euromoney kusukela inhlolovo yaqala ekuqaleni kwawo-1990.
Ukusebenzisa inkundla entsha, ethuthukisiwe yamaphuzu engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2019, ngokwesibonelo, kube nomthelela owodwa kumaphuzu aphelele, kwashintsha incazelo yemiphumela yonyaka, kodwa kungakhulumi ngokujwayelekile izinga elihlobene, izitayela zesikhathi eside noma ikota yakamuva. izinguquko.
Ucwaningo lunombuso omusha osezingeni eliphezulu one-Switzerland ephephile ehamba endaweni yokuqala ngaphambi kweSingapore, Norway, Denmark neSweden okwenza ingxenye esele yabahlanu abahamba phambili.
I-Switzerland ayinazo ubungozi ngokuphelele, njengoba kuboniswa ukungezwani kwakamuva mayelana nesivumelwano sohlaka olusha ne-EU, okuholela ekutheni izinhlangothi zombili zibeke imikhawulo yemakethe yamasheya.Kuphinde kuthambekele ezikhathini zokukhula kwe-GDP okufayo, okuhlanganisa nokwehla okukhulu ngonyaka odlule.
Kodwa-ke, imali esele ye-akhawunti yamanje engu-10% we-GDP, isabelomali sezimali esisele, isikweletu esincane, izimali ezigciniwe ze-FX ezinkulu kanye nohlelo lwezepolitiki olufuna ukuvumelana oluqinile lugunyaza imininingwane yalo njengendawo ephephile yabatshalizimali.
Ngale kwalokho kwaba unyaka oxubile emazweni athuthukile, okuhlanganisa i-US neCanada.Zombili zimakwe phansi kakhulu sekukonke, yize amaphuzu ase-US akhombise ukuqina kwikota yesine.
Ingcebo yaseJapan yancipha, ngenxa yokuthengiswa kwezitolo kanye nokukhiqizwa kwezimboni njengoba ukuzethemba kwehla ngasekupheleni konyaka.
E-eurozone, iFrance, iJalimane kanye ne-Italy bachayeka ezingxabanweni zokuhwebelana zomhlaba wonke kanye nobungozi bezepolitiki, okubandakanya ukhetho lwase-Italy, ukungazinzi komfelandawonye obusayo waseJalimane kanye nemibhikisho emelene nezinguquko eParis ebeka uhulumeni kaMacron ngaphansi kwengcindezi.
Nakuba iFrance yathola umhlangano wasekupheleni konyaka, ikakhulukazi ovela ezibalweni zezomnotho ezingcono kunebezilindelwe, uchwepheshe ozimele wezingozi uNorbert Gaillard wehlise izinga lesilinganiso sezimali zikahulumeni wakhe, ethi: “Ukulungiswa kohlelo lwezimpesheni kufanele kuqaliswe, kodwa kuzobiza kakhulu kulindeleke.Ngakho-ke, angiboni ukuthi isilinganiso sezikweletu zomphakathi ku-GDP singazinza kanjani sibe ngaphansi kuka-100% eminyakeni emibili ezayo.”
Omunye wochwepheshe benhlolovo ye-Euromoney ngu-M Nicolas Firzli, usihlalo we-World Pensions Council (WPC) kanye ne-Singapore Economic Forum (SEF), kanye nelungu lebhodi labaluleki le-World Bank Global Infrastructure Facility.
Uphawula ngeqiniso lokuthi amasonto ayisikhombisa adlule abe nesihluku ikakhulukazi ku-eurozone: “Ngokokuqala ngqa kusukela ngo-1991 (iMpi Ye-Gulf Yokuqala), indawo yezimboni yaseJalimane (imboni yezimoto kanye namathuluzi emishini ethuthukisiwe) ikhombisa izimpawu ezinkulu zokuhlangana ( okwesikhathi esifushane) kanye nobuthakathaka besakhiwo (isikhathi eside), ngaphandle kwethemba elibonakalayo kubakhi bezimoto baseStuttgart naseWolfsburg.
“Okwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu, iFrance manje isingene shi 'ohlelweni lokuguqulwa kwempesheni' okwenze ungqongqoshe wezimpesheni (kanye nomsunguli weqembu likamengameli uMacron) esula isigubhukane ngaphambi kukaKhisimusi, futhi izinyunyana zabasebenzi bakaMarxist zamisa ezokuthutha zomphakathi, kwaba nenhlekelele. imiphumela emnothweni waseFrance. "
Kodwa-ke, kube unyaka ongcono ezindaweni ezigcwele izikweletu, ngamaphuzu athuthukisiwe e-Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal futhi, ikakhulukazi, iGreece ngemuva kokufakwa kukahulumeni omusha wesikhungo sokudla kulandela ukunqoba kwentando yeningi kaKyriakos Mitsotakis okhethweni lukazwelonke olusheshayo ngoJulayi.
Uhulumeni ukwazile ukuphasisa isabelomali sakhe sokuqala ngesiphithiphithi esincane futhi uthole ukukhululeka kwezikweletu ngenxa yokuqalisa izinguquko.
Nakuba iGreece isesezingeni eliphansi lama-86 ezilinganisweni zobungozi zomhlaba wonke, ngaphansi kwawo wonke amanye amazwe e-eurozone, ethwele umthwalo omkhulu wezikweletu, ibone ukusebenza kwayo okuhle kakhulu kwezomnotho eminyakeni engaphezu kweshumi ngonyaka odlule ngokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka okukhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-2% ngokwemibandela yangempela. ngekota yesibili neyesithathu.
I-Italy ne-Spain nazo zabhalisa izinzuzo zasekupheleni konyaka, zisabela ekusebenzeni komnotho okungcono kunalokho obekulindelwe, umkhakha wamabhange ambalwa kanye nokukhathazeka kwezikweletu, kanye nezingozi zezombusazwe ezolile.
Noma kunjalo abahlaziyi basalokhu beqaphile ngamathemba ka-2020. Ngaphandle kwezingozi ezithinta i-US - okuhlanganisa nokhetho lwangoNovemba, ubudlelwano bayo neChina kanye nesimo esithuthukayo ne-Iran - ingcebo yaseJalimane iya ngokuwohloka.
Isizinda sayo sokukhiqiza sibhekene nokuphindaphindeka kabili kwentela yezohwebo kanye nemithethonqubo yezemvelo, futhi isimo sezombusazwe asiqiniseki kakhulu njengoba kushubile phakathi kwabalandeli baka-Angela Merkel kanye nabalingani bakhe bentando yeningi abancike kwesokunxele ngaphansi kobuholi obusha.
Isimo sase-UK sisaxakile naso, naphezu kokuthi ochwepheshe bengcuphe bathatha imiphumela yokhetho lukazwelonke banikeza iningi eliqinile lama-Conservatives ka-Boris Johnson futhi basusa izithiyo zomthetho.
Ochwepheshe abaningi, okuhlanganisa no-Norbert Gaillard, bathuthukise izikolo zabo ukuze kuqine uhulumeni wase-UK.“Isizathu sami ukuthi uhulumeni waseBrithani ubungazinzile futhi uncike kwiDemocratic Unionist Party yaseNorthern Ireland ngo-2018-2019.
"Manje, izinto sezicace kakhudlwana, futhi yize uBrexit engemihle, undunankulu u-Boris Johnson uneningi elikhulu futhi amandla akhe okuxoxisana azoba makhulu kunangaphambili lapho exoxisana ne-European Union."
Abahlaziyi bahlukene nokho phakathi kwalabo, njengoGaillard, ababezethemba kakhudlwana mayelana nombono onikezwe uhlaka olunqumayo lokufeza i-Brexit, nalabo ababheke isithombe sezomnotho nesezimali sase-UK ngokuqapha ngenxa yezinhlelo zikahulumeni zokusebenzisa imali yomphakathi kanye nethemba lokungaphumeleli. -umphumela wesivumelwano uma izingxoxo zohwebo ne-EU zithuthuka ngendlela engafanele.
Kodwa-ke, uFirzli ukholelwa ukuthi abanikazi bempahla besikhathi eside abavela e-China - kanye nase-US, Canada, Australia, Singapore nase-Abu Dhabi ('amandla amakhulu empesheni') - bazimisele ukwenza kabusha ukubheja kwesikhathi eside e-UK, naphezu ukusetshenziswa kwemali okweqile komphakathi kanye nobungozi bezimali obuhlobene ne-Brexit esikhathini esifushane.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iziphathimandla zezezimali ze-orthodox 'core-eurozone' ezifana neJalimane, iLuxembourg, iNetherlands neDenmark “zingase zibe nesikhathi esinzima kakhulu ukuheha abatshalizimali bangaphandle besikhathi eside ezinyangeni ezizayo”.
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Izinto ezikule sayithi ezezikhungo zezezimali, abatshalizimali abangochwepheshe kanye nabeluleki bazo abangochwepheshe.Okolwazi kuphela.Sicela ufunde Imigomo Nemibandela yethu, Inqubomgomo Yobumfihlo kanye Namakhukhi ngaphambi kokusebenzisa leli sayithi.
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Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-16-2020